National Disaster Situation Report

CND / 01

What Brazil’s water report contributes

In its 2025 full report, Brazil’s National Water and Sanitation Agency (ANA) brought together physical conditions, water use, critical events and water management. Readers can trace a drought from measurements to the decisions that followed. Annual bulletins update the record between full reports. The digital edition allows readers to explore individual topics.

The disaster report (CND) would adapt this sequence. It would first describe what happened and who was affected, then connect warnings, relief and recovery to documented events. It would close by assessing local capacity and policy implementation. Brazil’s National Secretariat for Civil Protection and Defence (SEDEC) aims to build a national reference for decisions and accountability. ANA is a methodological reference and a possible external reviewer.

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What each edition would deliver

Annual bulletin: An account of the reference year, opening with ten indicators and including three to five major-event studies. A headline figure for reported losses would require a validated price basis and rules for combining categories.
State profiles: One profile for each federation unit, including the Federal District. The proposed two-page format would show municipal records, events, funding by phase, local capacity and a comparison with the unit’s own historical series.
Digital dashboard and open data: Each published table would have a reusable file, source, extraction cut-off, unit and revision history. Annual releases would remain identifiable as source systems are updated.
Full report: A four-year review of long-term series, changes in exposure and institutional capacity. The first full report is proposed for 2030 and would review the 2026–2029 reference years.

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Nine chapters, nine questions

The editorial team would compile the highlights and close the edition with state profiles and a methodology annex. The roles below are proposed by function and await formal assignment.

Chapter and question	Who would prepare the answer
01 · The disaster year. Where were records filed, and what losses were reported?	Editors and SEDEC’s information management function. S2iD records, the Digital Atlas historical series and Brazil’s COBRADE disaster classification.
02 · Anatomy of major events. What happened between monitoring and recovery?	All units and local teams. A documented event timeline would identify decisions, resources and outstanding issues.
03 · Understanding and preventing risk. Which vulnerabilities and measures changed?	Prevention and mitigation department (DPM). Risk maps, the national register, prioritisation, physical severity, plans and interventions.
04 · Preparedness and warnings. Were protocols and capabilities in place?	Risk and disaster management centre (CENAD) and the preparedness and rescue function. Warnings, coverage, training, exercises and contingency plans.
05 · Rescue and assistance. Which aid arrived, where and when?	Preparedness and rescue and humanitarian assistance functions. Federal recognition, operations, supplies and assistance records.
06 · Restoration and rebuilding. Which services resumed and which works were delivered?	Restoration and recovery function. Work plans, transfers, progress milestones and local handover.
07 · The federation in action. What capacity do communities have?	Editors, information management and federation units. Institutional records, municipal capacity indicator and IBGE surveys for the years available.
08 · Policy instruments. What progress was made on the national plan?	All units, including planning and budgeting. Targets, regulatory acts, expenditure and evidence of implementation.
09 · Brazil in the world. What indicators could support international reporting?	Editors and the international affairs function. Mapping to the Sendai Framework and SDGs, with definitions, gaps and separate validation.

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The civil protection and defence cycle

Prevention: Relate land use, susceptibility and local capacity to identify where new exposure could be avoided. Record the map date and municipalities covered.
Mitigation: Locate each risk-reduction measure and document its actual implementation stage. Compare conditions before and after it, explaining what else may have influenced the result.
Preparedness: Check whether a locality had a current plan, a documented exercise and designated warning recipients and messengers. Measure warning coverage where evidence exists.
Response: Record the sequence of call-outs, rescues, shelter and assistance. Tie each quantity to its source, population covered and service period.
Recovery: Separate restoration of essential services from permanent reconstruction. Report the administrative stage, funds transferred, physical progress and acceptance of works, each with its own date.
Monitoring across the cycle: Link partner observations and technical advisories, including those from Cemaden, with CENAD records and state and municipal actions. Readers can then examine time to action and identify missing evidence.

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From the municipality to CONPDEC

Municipal teams document an occurrence, report damage and record local action. A state or the Federal District provides regional context, checks its profile and identifies cases where several municipalities describe one physical event. Shared cut-off and revision rules would make those accounts readable side by side.

Each SEDEC unit would check the information within its remit. The proposal assigns technical editorial coordination to DPM working with the information assessment and management unit (DAGI). A proposed Editorial Board, chaired by the National Secretary or a delegate, would set the agenda and approve the edition.

Brazil’s National Council for Civil Protection and Defence (CONPDEC) is an advisory body. The CND would give it common evidence to monitor the national plan. One possible practice is to bring a documented gap, the states it affects and its source to a meeting. An agreed action and its owner could then be followed in the next cycle. Editorial approval and consultation with CONPDEC are separate steps.

Article 3(III) of Brazilian ministerial order 3,318/2025 assigns SEDEC an annual report on implementation and evaluation of the National Civil Protection and Defence Plan (PN-PDC). The CND policy instruments chapter could contribute evidence to that reporting. The separate decision to establish the CND series is still pending.

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What a published figure means

In the project’s 2025 extract, the Atlas contains 4,262 records across 2,551 municipalities. Federal recognition is recorded for 2,253 of these records. A single flood affecting several towns may generate a record in each. Recognition is an administrative status. People affected in successive events can appear more than once.

S2iD holds occurrence records and applications for federal recognition and for response and recovery funding. The Atlas organises the historical record at municipal level. The preserved 1991–2025 extract contains 76,191 records, with at least one in 5,256 of the 5,570 municipalities in scope. Access to the system and changes in recording practice also influence the count.

Check the measure: For each indicator, preserve its unit, period, coverage, source, extraction date, aggregation rule and verifier. Identify provisional and missing data.
Reconcile sources: Distinguish a missing report from a verified zero. Material damage and economic losses require compatible categories, years and price bases. A combined total considered in the pilot requires reconciliation before use as a headline indicator.
Track revisions: When a state submits a correction, retain the cut-off version, explain the change and publish its effect on the series. Ask the responsible unit to validate warning, transfer and delivery figures.

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An annual timetable to test

Proposed window	Work and evidence of completion
January–March	States and units check the reference year. The team records the data cut-off and coverage on 31 March.
April–June	Units draft chapters and states review profiles. Editors check definitions and assemble the first proof.
July–September	Critical reading and reconciliation in July, visual design and revision in August, editorial decision and publication preparation in September.
13 October	Suggested release of the bulletin, 27 state profiles and open tables, on the International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction.
November–December	Log corrections, questions from CONPDEC and states, and the priorities for the next edition.

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What exists and what awaits a decision

Documented milestone · August 2026: Issue 0 is an internal methodological pilot. It used historical data and DPM tools to test the format and evidence rules.
Proposed institutional decision · 2026: Establish the series through a ministerial act, convene the Editorial Board and appoint chapter leads. Agree the timetable and check staff time, editorial costs and dashboard operations.
Proposed internal rehearsal · first half of 2027: Use reference year 2025 to draft chapters 1, 3, 4, 6 and 8 and test three state profiles. Identify data corrections and measure the effort needed for validation.
Proposed first public edition · 13 October 2027: Complete reference year 2026 and submit the full annual edition for editorial approval. Continued annual publication and the 2030 four-year review depend on these decisions.

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A working question for Brazil and China

On 16 January 2026, China’s Ministry of Emergency Management published the national situation report on natural disasters in 2025. It describes joint analysis by member authorities and presents population impacts, direct economic losses and the characteristics of the main disaster types.

A first exchange could select one documented flood in each country. Each team could prepare one page recording its cut-off date, area affected, warning source, action taken and definition of affected population. China’s unit 人次 counts person-occurrences and may include repeat impacts. Teams could compare definitions and coverage before interpreting totals. A bilingual template would be a tangible outcome, subject to interest on both sides.

What local information is lost when thousands of records become a single national figure?

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Sources and provenance

Editorial design and milestones follow DPM’s August 2026 proposal and executive summary. Issue 0 documents the methodological pilot. The October v2 guide sets the historical scope of the demonstration. The schedule and editorial roles reflect the proposed design. Institutional responsibilities and the Chinese example were checked against public sources.